Republicans are headed for BIG trouble as all of the unpopular
party “front-runners” head into Super Tuesday with their campaigns on life
support.
The DNC primary race is already a two man race between Hillary
Clinton and Barack Obama, each of whom have raised over $100 million in campaign
funds and head into Super Tuesday flush with cash and plenty more where that
came from.
But four of the five remaining Republican candidates are
running on empty heading into Super Tuesday and overall, Republican fund raising
trails Democrats by the widest margin in modern history.
Democrat voters are divided almost 50-50, half like Hillary and
the other half like Obama. But none of the Republican candidates has the support
of even 30 percent of their party faithful and the fact that nobody is betting
money on any of the Republican campaigns, should be of great concern to all
Republicans.
Money is the gas every campaign runs on
Bush - Cheney
out-raised
Gore - Lieberman by $60
million and won the electoral vote to take the White House in 2000. In 2004,
Bush - Cheney again out-raised
Kerry - Edwards by $40 million and
won by almost 4 million votes.
But in 2008, where is the Republican money going to come from
and who can raise it? So far, it’s coming from nowhere and nobody is raising it.
Paul has done the best at raising money in the fourth quarter, but the worst at
converting that cash to Republican voter support, remaining a distant dead last
in all national polls, due to his anti-Republican ideals.
Both Democrat candidates have strong financial and voter
support. Republicans are instead, divided and disgusted, sitting on their
wallets and promising to sit this one out. By contrast, 2008 might make the 2006
bloodbath look like a Republican victory.
The Frightening Reality for the RNC
front-runners
All national polls say that even though five Republicans remain
in the race, only three have enough voter support to keep going in the
nomination process. But only one has the money to keep going and his money is
not coming from supporters, but rather his personal bank account.
The most current national poll averages
(1/11 – 1/22), per Real Clear
Politics
McCain 26.3%
Huckabee 18.8%
Romney 15.8%
Giuliani
12.2%
Thompson 10.2%
Paul 4.8%
Thompson just dropped out with more than double the support of
Paul. Paul never had a chance in the RNC no matter how much money he raises from
anti-war activists across the aisle, and Rudy, who has finished just about last
everywhere so far, is dropping in the polls even in “make or break” Florida now.
Like it or not, the Republican race really appears to be a race
divided almost equally between McCain, Romney and Huckabee, none of whom are
conservative and none of them with even 30 percent support from their party.
McCain is on top today, but the situation remains very fluid.
The McCain and Huckabee campaigns have been running on empty
since the day they announced a campaign. Neither has raised even 10 percent of
the money raised by either Democrat opponent and neither has the personal deep
pockets of Mitt Romney, who ran out of campaign contributions months ago and
would already be out of the race had he not dumped millions in personal wealth
into his campaign just to stay alive.
Where’s the campaign gas going to come
from?
All of the Republican front-runners are banking on Republicans
voting against Hillary and/or Obama in November, recognizing the reality that
few Republicans can vote for them, without holding their nose.
Yet at the moment, Romney appears the only one capable of even
making it to November, and even he will have to fund his campaign himself to get
there. The money simply isn’t flowing for Republicans in 2008 and that is very
likely to be a sign of things to come in November, no matter which remaining
Republican emerges the nominee.
The three remaining Republicans, four at
best
For all practical purposes, the RNC race can be described as a
dead heat between at the most four candidates, with no clear national
front-runner. But none of the four are able to raise campaign fuel because none
of the four enjoy the broad based support of Republican voters.
Even the departed candidates are divided among the
front-runners. Tancredo endorsed Romney, but Hunter endorsed Huckabee and so
far, Thompson has endorsed none of the above. Though it is tough to imagine
Thompson ever endorsing anyone but old friend John.
This time, conservatives may decide the
election
For years now, Independent voters have decided elections and
clearly, it is Independent voters who have decided the Republican nomination of
less than conservative Republicans even this time around.
But this time, it may be conservatives who actually decide the
ultimate outcome of the election.
When conservative media giant Rush Limbaugh makes this
public statement to his more than 20 million listeners, "I can see
possibly not supporting the Republican nominee this election, and I never
thought that I would say that in my life.” you know that the level of
angst among mainstream conservatives is at an all time high.
If conservatives do sit this one out, they will have decided
the outcome of the election for the first time in decades. Clearly, they are
sitting on their wallets. Will they also sit on their votes and, even if they
don’t sit on their vote, where will the Republican campaign money come from
between now and November?
How Do You Elect an Unpopular Nominee?
This is the problem with nominating unpopular candidates.
Nobody is inspired to spend hard earned money to advance a campaign they don’t
even want to vote for in the end. When November rolls around and the Democrat
ticket has the ability to outspend the Republican ticket 5 to 1 in the general
election, that’s an election you can’t win.
Republicans have nominated their way into a corner for 2008, a
corner not easy to get out of.
They are advancing candidates that few Republicans will reach
into their pockets for and many will not even leave the comfort of their home in
November, just to cast another vote against another Democrat.
In short, it is highly unlikely that any unpopular nominee can
be elected in the general election when they are out-gunned 5 to 1 in campaign
funds and 2 to 1 in voters.
If the DNC is smart enough to unite Clinton and Obama on one
ticket, it’s all over but the shoutin’… The general election spending will be 10
to 1 in favor of a Democrat White House.
Republicans have only themselves to blame…
Boss Tweed, who ran Tammany Hall in the late 1800's (the
infamously corrupt NYC Democrat machine) said it best…
"I don't care who does the electing as long as I get to do the
nominating."
Republicans did the nominating. Now they may have to live with the only
plausible result of the general election.